Political analysts say that Republicans have an uphill battle to retain the majority in the House in the 2026 midterms, with one telling Newsweek to expect a “major shift” in the makeup of the lower chamber.
With roughly 18 months remaining before the midterms, William Hall of Webster University in St. Louis told Newsweek that “barring some highly unlikely unforeseen circumstances,” the 2026 elections are likely to “bring about a major shift” in the House.
House Republicans currently sit on a 220-213 majority.
Hall’s prediction of an “overwhelming victory” for Democrats “reflects the negative ratings held by a Republican-led administration, virtually in every significant category,” he told Newsweek.
Meanwhile, Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics recently wrote that “Democrats became favorites to flip the House as soon as [Donald] Trump won” last November, according to the report.
The early predictions echo those from a few years ago when pundits predicted a red wave for Republicans in the 2022 midterms, which never materialized. In 2018, however, Democrats gained 41 seats in the House two years after Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton, according to the report.
“If there’s someone in the prognostication business that feels confident about anything right now, that’s something to take note of,” Heath Brown, associate professor of public policy at City University of New York, told Newsweek.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last week released a list of 35 Republican seats they plan to target in the midterms, including districts Trump won by 18 points in November.
“It’s a week after April Fool’s Day, but the DCCC is still joking around with this laughable list in a pathetic attempt to distract voters from their party’s terrible approval ratings. Voters aren’t buying it, and they know Democrats are too extreme, too unpopular, and totally out of touch,” said NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella.
The National Republican Congressional Committee last month released its target list, including 26 Democrat seats.
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