Russia remains “on the precipice of returning to the offensive,” so President Vladimir Putin’s pledge for an Easter ceasefire may not last past the holiday, Project Sentinel President Tony Shaffer said on Newsmax Saturday.
“It will hold if both sides stop shooting at each other,” Shaffer, appearing on Newsmax with Darin Gaub, the founder of Restore Liberty, said on “Saturday Report.” “I’m skeptical, so we’ll see. It’s something that the Trump administration is pushing for — a ceasefire. So I’d like to believe if this can hold for at least 24 hours, that’s a good portent for things to come.”
However, Shaffer pointed out that Russia is in a strategic pause.
“They’ve moved in another 160,000 reservists,” said Shaffer, adding that he disagrees with Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. European Command, and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander for Europe, who told Congress last week that the Russians are exhausted.
“They’re not exhausted. They’re preparing to return to what would be their path to a military solution,” said Shaffer.
He noted that Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in Paris this week to try to negotiate solutions with the Europeans.
“[They] keep saying, ‘Oh, we’ll take the place of the United States in providing resources and weapons to the Ukrainians,'” said Shaffer. “It’s not going to happen. So right now, we’re close to not only a ceasefire but to a framework where Crimea is given up, where a number of things are done.”
What Ukraine has to do now is sign a deal with the United States regarding mineral rights, he added.
“That will get us a skin in the game and move forward with a framework that everybody can live with,” said Shaffer. “Unfortunately, I’m skeptical about that as well.”
Gaub commented that he’d also like to see the temporary ceasefire become permanent, but “we as Americans have to realize we may have to accept the reality that Putin doesn’t want to quit and doesn’t have to.”
“He’s got all the cards,” Gaub said. “He’s got the advantage. He’s got the manpower, forces, and many other resources along with the allies to keep this thing going and establish victory on his own terms rather than where we think it might be.”
The question remains whether there will be something that changes the equation enough for Putin to make the ceasefire permanent, he said.
“There are too many players in this right now, and he has too many advantages to want to quit,” said Gaub.
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